By Roy van den Brink-Budgen
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Additional info for Critical Thinking for Students: Learn the Skills of Critical Assessment and Effective Argument, 3rd Edition
On the other hand, the hot summer could be one of many factors which could explain the poor level of bookings. As a result, one could not conclude that people have decided to holiday in this country only because of the hot summer. 62 Exploring Weakness Looking for different assumptions There is another aspect of the argument which needs to be considered. The conclusion is drawn on the assumption that people are planning to take holidays (even if they're not booking foreign holidays through travel agents).
It is a fairly simple argument (but not necessarily a very good one): following the introduction of the National Lottery, the amount spent on gambling has gone up. Therefore the Lottery has encouraged people to think of gambling as a solution to their financial problems. The material which surrounds this argument is no more than background information (other countries and the date of the National Lottery's introduction) and a claim that winning money does not guarantee happiness. DECIDING WHAT CONCLUSION CAN BE DRAWN In most of the arguments that you'll be using or looking at, the most that you'll be able to conclude is that something is probably rather than certainly true.
The problem with it is that its strength is meant to come from its appeal to consistency: if you don't accept one situation, then you shouldn't accept another which is similar to it. But the chocolate-flavoured cigarettes don't exist: the appeal to consistency depends on an imaginary example. In other words, the adequacy of the analogy is weaker than a real example would have provided. However, the analogy highlights something. It makes us question the idea of these 'fun' drinks by showing us a scenario which, though imaginary, contains the essence of the problem.
Critical Thinking for Students: Learn the Skills of Critical Assessment and Effective Argument, 3rd Edition by Roy van den Brink-Budgen