By Eduard Hochreiter, Pierre Siklos
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Extra info for From Floating to Monetary Union: The Economic Distance between Exchange Rate Regimes
Not surprisingly, monetary shocks have a permanent impact especially on inflation. The results are broadly similar for the Netherlands, as shown in Figure 5. However, aggregate supply shocks have a declining impact on inflation over time unlike the experience for Austria. More importantly, perhaps, the cumulated exchange rate and interest rate response to a monetary shock is, respectively, permanent and temporary in the case of the Netherlands whereas the same shocks have relatively less impact for Austria.
The European Union Treaty requires the accession countries to adopt the euro once the Maastricht convergence criteria are satisfied. Table 4 therefore also considers economic distance for such candidate economies. In the case of the accession countries, the euro area is the target while, for illustrative purposes, we use Japan as the target country for the Asian economies considered. While some accession countries, notable the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovenia, are good candidates for monetary union in terms of overall economic performance, most are not.
The results are even less promising when one examines economic distance in terms of inflation, though Hungary, Malta, and Slovenia are not more distant than is Canada vis-à-vis the US. Turning to the Asian bloc of countries, there is a smaller spread in economic distance from Japan separating many candidate countries in terms of output growth. The range is somewhat larger when examining economic distance in terms of inflation with China, Hong Kong and Indonesia relatively distant from Japan. Overall, it appears that business cycle synchronicity is fairly well established for many countries among the groups considered as candidates for a monetary union.
From Floating to Monetary Union: The Economic Distance between Exchange Rate Regimes by Eduard Hochreiter, Pierre Siklos