By Aristotle

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So the above principle is false: it may be that S’s A-ing was not itself a stroke of good luck for S even though it was a stroke of good luck for S that S was positioned to A. The envisaged attempt to reinstate Demolition Worker as a counterexample to the Analysis fails. On the basis of the last several paragraphs’ discussion, I conclude that neither of the two possible interpretations of Demolition Worker casts serious doubt on the Analysis. 3 Putting it all together: the Enriched Strokes Account of lucky events Call the conjunction of the Strokes Account with the Analysis the Enriched Strokes Account of lucky events.

22 If the Inverse Proportionality Thesis is true, then we can simply modify the Russian roulette case so that there was only an infinitesimally small objective chance that S would die. So modified, S’s survival will be too probable to satisfy condition (2**) of the Analysis, yet (claims the objector) will still count as lucky. Far from revitalizing the above argument, however, such a move would actually render the argument irrelevant to the Strokes Account. To begin to see this, note that luck runs riot under the Inverse Proportionality Thesis: any event E that’s extremely significant for – but not intentionally done by – S will count as lucky for S provided that there was at least an extremely small objective chance that E wouldn’t happen.

So modified, S’s survival will be too probable to satisfy condition (2**) of the Analysis, yet (claims the objector) will still count as lucky. Far from revitalizing the above argument, however, such a move would actually render the argument irrelevant to the Strokes Account. To begin to see this, note that luck runs riot under the Inverse Proportionality Thesis: any event E that’s extremely significant for – but not intentionally done by – S will count as lucky for S provided that there was at least an extremely small objective chance that E wouldn’t happen.

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Logics & Experimental Science by Aristotle


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