By Thomas Aubrey (auth.)

ISBN-10: 1137289708

ISBN-13: 9781137289704

ISBN-10: 1349670979

ISBN-13: 9781349670970

The monetary situation has ended in a decade of negative returns for pension schemes and reduce retirement earning. Credit-based funding concepts that music the enterprise cycle, are permitting upkeep of traders' capital. This booklet offers research and funding process plans to generate equity-like-returns with bond like volatility.

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Additional info for Profiting from Monetary Policy: Investing through the Business Cycle

Sample text

The [ailure o[ economic modelling In 2011, the Federal Reserve published a paper that eompared eeonomie foreeasts based on miero foundations with more standard maeroeeonomie models. The conclusion was rather bleak for eeonomists and potentially for investors. It stated that 'DSGE models are very poor in foreeasting, but so are all other approaehes'. 19 However, this has not stopped the wide use of eeonometrie models by investors in an attempt to identify faetors whieh ean provide leading indieators of asset value trends.

This backward step in thinking about the relationship between the money supply and prices was definitively made almost 90 years later, when David Ricardo published On the Principles 0/ Political Economy and Taxation in 1817. Like Cantillon, Ricardo made a great deal of money from investing before turning to economic theory, although Ricardo's wealth seems to have come to hirn more by luck than by design. From 1811, Ricardo's stockbroking firm was one of the loan contractors for the government of Great Britain and Ireland.

Keynes's argument remains rather prescient. However, it was of course his fiscal policy that was central to his theory, and after the Second WOrld War it did take centre stage as a result of research by the New Zealander Bill Phillips at the London School of Economics. In 1958 Phillips published a paper on the relations hip between wages and unemployment. The initial relationship was striking in its simplicity in that the lower the rate of unemployment the higher the rate of inflation. It appeared that the government could now bring down unemployment at the expense of a bit more inflation.

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Profiting from Monetary Policy: Investing through the Business Cycle by Thomas Aubrey (auth.)

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