By Michael Porter

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Since there is enormous uncertainty related to this technology, the company decides to conduct a pilot test in a small market before a “full-blown” launch. It initiates a pilot test in a small metropolitan area, which is expected to cost $200 million. If the pilot test proves the project’s large-scale commercial viability, the company will launch the seamless technology and its related products in seven major metropolitan areas at an estimated investment cost of $1 billion. What is the option created by Seamless Transitions?

This method can be used in many different ways. In the most common approach, each project scenario is created by taking a random value for each one of the input parameters of the DCF method and solving for the NPV. Two basic steps are involved in such a calculation: 1. ) that dictates the free cash flows by identifying its average value and standard deviation of the distribution. This is typically done by using historical data. If there is no history on the data of an input variable to estimate its standard deviation, optimistic and pessimistic estimates which correspond to approximately 1% and 99% probabilities J.

Keeping this in mind, we address below seven questions that practitioners often face. 1. If there is no uncertainty — that is, no risk — associated with a cash flow stream, what is the appropriate discount rate? As mentioned in the preceding section, if there is no uncertainty associated with a cash flow stream, it means that there is no risk associated with it. Therefore, a risk-free interest rate should be used to discount such cash flows. Risk-free interest rate corresponds to a riskless investment.

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Strategy and the Internet by Michael Porter


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